2002 Capacity Institute / Province of the Netherlands: Forecasts of GPs
This case concerns two parallel strategic studies. These studies were commissioned by the above Dutch organizations.
The strategic research at the Capacity Institute (Dutch name: Capaciteits Orgaan), concerned:
- Medical students, their choice of speciality and the influences on that choice in common and in particular by the influence of the government on those choices (the government can make it easier or more difficult for someone to become a doctor/specialist through a numerus fixus and other measures)
- the need for doctors/specialists; among other things, through population growth and similar external influences,
- the ‘Inhibting Factors’ that inhibit the number of doctors/specialists (such as general practitioners, see below).
This study showed that there would be a large shortage of GPs (which was later confirmed by the renowned NIVEL research institute, which referred to the Capacity Institute study).‘Evidence-based’ showed that the province of South Holland was already struggling with a relatively large shortage of GPs. The province had already had several studies carried out into this, but these were partly contradictory.
The research that was done for the province using the ORP-method involved a quantitative literature study, which showed that the OPR-method could be used to make a reliable probability calculation from which trend conclusions could be drawn.
The following page shows the results of both research assignments. In those studies, the most recent advanced reliability techniques (of this book) were not yet used, but nevertheless the conclusion proved to be accurate, because the prediction of the projected national GP shortage became visible within three years.
The RP-Matrix®, RP-Matrix®-Table and RP-Index® summarise at the highest strategic level which strategic actions should be taken to prevent or eliminate the shortage. Along the Priority axis, the impact of each action is shown as a percentage of the total impact of all actions. The Realization axis shows the probability of each action being realised.
